Evidence suggests 15% of public sector employees have used their Janus Rights since 2018
Academic administrative‑data study: ~15% decline in dues‑paying membership (2018–2021)
A 2026 American Economic Association paper using administrative records from 17 state governments and 376 local governments found:
- About a 15% cumulative decline in dues‑paying public‑sector union members in the three years after Janus (2018–2021).
- Three‑fifths of the decline happened in the first year, indicating a large immediate wave of resignations.
This is the strongest empirical estimate available because it uses actual membership rosters obtained through public records requests.